# Return (▲Price), Likelihood & Probabilities: Top10 Traded ETFs in USA from 21/12/2021 to 29/03/2022.

*1. Accumulative Splines & ▲Price > 0*

*1. Accumulative Splines & ▲Price > 0*

### *1. EEM*

*1. EEM*

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 22/02/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 30,11%

Odds Positive Return: 0,4308

### 2*. IWM*

*. IWM*

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 15/02/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 31,00%

Odds Positive Return: 0,4493

### *3. TQQQ*

*3. TQQQ*

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 29/03/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 29,34%

Odds Positive Return: 0,4152

### *4. VXX*

*4. VXX*

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 22/03/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 6,65%

Odds Positive Return: 0,0712

### *5. XLE*

*5. XLE*

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 08/02/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 28,12%

Odds Positive Return: 0,3912

### **6. UVXY**

**6. UVXY**

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 08/03/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 25,15%

Odds Positive Return: 0,3360

### *7. QQQ*

*7. QQQ*

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 25/01/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 29,73%

Odds Positive Return: 0,4231

### *8. SPY*

*8. SPY*

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 01/02/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 30,14%

Odds Positive Return: 0,4314

### *9. SQQQ*

*9. SQQQ*

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 15/02/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 22,61%

Odds Positive Return: 0,2921

### *10. XLF*

*10. XLF*

Smoothing factor: 0,0011

Recommendation: Spline to be used until 15/02/2022 then update.

Probability ▲Price > 0: 23,02%

Odds Positive Return: 0,2990

In conclusion, as in a __prior post__ it was demonstrated that there is not * significant difference* between the return and risk of the Top10 traded ETFs in USA, the

*behavior of their returns give the reader information that*

**inner***by the traditional*

**can't be identified***approach. Given the current conditions, the most logic option would be to choose*

**time-series***(iShares Russell 2000 ETF) as it offers the*

**IWM***for positive returns. On the other hand, the*

**best odds***for*

**low odds***suggest that the market will keep its*

**VXX***the following week.*

**positive trend***2. Probability Splines & ▲Price with Maximum Likelihood*

*2. Probability Splines & ▲Price with Maximum Likelihood*

### *1. EEM*

*1. EEM*

Smoothing factor: 0,0032

▲Price with maximum likelihood: 0,34 USD

Distribution Likelihood: 46,72%

### ** 2. IWM**

**2. IWM**

Smoothing factor: 0,0032

▲Price with maximum likelihood: 0,46 USD

Distribution Likelihood: 47,92%

### * 3. TQQQ*

*3. TQQQ*

Smoothing factor: 0,0032

▲Price with maximum likelihood: 0,69 USD

Distribution Likelihood: 53,67%

### *4. VXX*

*4. VXX*

Smoothing factor: 0,0032

▲Price with maximum likelihood: -8,54 USD

Distribution Likelihood: 76,95%

### *5. XLE*

*5. XLE*

Smoothing factor: 0,0032

▲Price with maximum likelihood: 0,47 USD

Distribution Likelihood: 50,12%

### *6. QQQ*

*6. QQQ*

Smoothing factor: 0,0032

▲Price with maximum likelihood: 1,16 USD

Distribution Likelihood: 57,65%

### *7. UVXY*

*7. UVXY*

Smoothing factor: 0,0032

▲Price with maximum likelihood: 27,83 USD

Distribution Likelihood: 61,59%

### *8. XLF*

*8. XLF*

Smoothing factor: 0,0032

▲Price with maximum likelihood: -0,06 USD

Distribution Likelihood: 59,70%

### *9. SPY*

*9. SPY*

Smoothing factor: 0,0032

▲Price with maximum likelihood: 4,84 USD

Distribution Likelihood: 54,87%

### *10. SQQQ*

*10. SQQQ*

Consequently, what all these results say about the statistical analisys and modeling done in this and prior posts? First, in the case of * distribution splines* the percentage taken as

*is a*

**"Distribution Likelihood"***rather than the area below it; therefore, it si important to differentiate between this and the*

**point on the curve***concept. What is being shown here is that e.g. if the*

**probability***drops by nearly*

**volatility***, it would be*

**8,54 USD***likely that the spline is doing an accurate representation.*

**76,95%***All these calculations are based on probabilities, which can fail sometimes; however, the developed algorithm to reach those numbers has been thought to reduce such failures to their lowest level.*